Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KopechPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jiménez homered to left center (406 feet).6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Trout reached on infield single to shortstop, Walsh scored, Moniak to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Neto hit sacrifice fly to right, Thaiss scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5González homered to center (423 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Vaughn homered to right (363 feet).4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Jiménez singled to center, Benintendi scored.4–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 1Thaiss homered to center (414 feet).4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Drury homered to left center (394 feet), Trout scored and Ohtani scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Fair odds
- CHW -105
- LAA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Kopech: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +1 Elo | CHW 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 12–1323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.