Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Angels- Hunter RenfroeBatting1-2
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Segura singled to right, Arraez scored, Gurriel to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Fortes homered to left (385 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +41 Elo | LAA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 15–1215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.