Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arraez singled to center, Davis scored, Wendle to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7De La Cruz homered to right center (374 feet), Cooper scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Drury homered to right center (390 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Fortes singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Segura to second, Gurriel to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Trout singled to left, Wallach scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Soler homered to center (425 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Segura singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Gurriel to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Fair odds
- LAA -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −17 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +17 Elo | LAA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 15–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.