Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Gio UrshelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Urshela singled to right, Drury scored.8–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 10Hampson singled to left, Cooper scored and Berti scored.8–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 10Stallings grounded out to catcher, Gurriel scored, Berti to second, Cooper to third.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 10Arraez scored, Cooper safe at second, Gurriel safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Moniak.5–4
- 10Arraez scored on error, Cooper safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Moniak, Cooper safe at second on error, Gurriel safe at third on error.5–4
- 10Arraez scored on error, Cooper safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Moniak, Cooper safe at second on error, Gurriel safe at third on error.5–4
- 10Arraez scored on error, Cooper safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Moniak, Cooper safe at second on error, Gurriel safe at third on error.5–4
- 10Arraez scored on error, Cooper safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Moniak, Cooper safe at second on error, Gurriel safe at third on error.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Urshela homered to center (402 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Soler homered to left center (402 feet), Davis scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Thaiss singled to right, Drury scored and Walsh scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Arraez singled to right, Stallings scored, Soler to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 58%
- Fair odds
- LAA -116
- MIA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.4 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +16 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +56 Elo | LAA 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 15–119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 LAA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.