Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6González homered to left center (407 feet).3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 4González scored on error by third baseman Urshela.3–6
- 4González stole third, González scored on missed catch error by third baseman Urshela.3–6
- 4González scored on error by third baseman Urshela.3–6
- 4González doubled to right, Vaughn scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Vaughn doubled to center, Moncada scored, Robert Jr. scored and Jiménez scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Urshela hit sacrifice fly to center, Renfroe scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Ohtani homered to center (435 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Jiménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Burger scored, Robert Jr. to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ward homered to center (413 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.7 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +5 Elo | CHW 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–0 CHW in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.