Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani scored on Pressly wild pitch, Ward to second.6–9
- 9Ohtani scored on Pressly wild pitch, Ward to second on wild pitch by Pressly.6–9
- 7Dubón hit sacrifice fly to center, Meyers scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7McCormick homered to right center (381 feet).5–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 7Trout singled to left, Ohtani scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Soto scored on Neris wild pitch, Ohtani to third on wild pitch by Neris.4–7
- 7Soto scored on Neris wild pitch, Ohtani to third on wild pitch by Neris.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 7Ohtani doubled to left, Rengifo scored, Soto to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Renfroe homered to left (409 feet).2–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Bregman homered to left (345 feet), Dubón scored, Peña scored and Alvarez scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Fair odds
- HOU -117
- LAA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +8 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +42 Elo | HOU 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 17–1312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.