Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ward singled to center, Drury scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 8Drury reached on infield single to third, Rengifo scored on error, Drury safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.1–6
- 8Drury reached on infield single to third, Rengifo scored on error, Drury safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.1–6
- 8Drury reached on infield single to third, Rengifo scored on error, Drury safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Tucker doubled to left, Alvarez scored, Bregman to third.0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Julks homered to left center (411 feet), McCormick scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Bregman singled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez thrown out at third.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (408 feet), Peña scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -116
- LAA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +9 | LAA: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +37 Elo | HOU 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 16–1312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.