Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-7, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 14Brennan doubled to left, Freeman scored.9–10
- 14Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–10
- 14Freeman doubled to left, Naylor scored.9–9
- 14Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–9
- 14Pitch 2 : Ball 19–8
- 14Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 14Tucker singled to center, Altuve scored.9–8
- 14Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–8
- 14Pitch 5 : Ball 39–8
- 14Pitch 4 : Ball 29–8
- 14Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–8
- 14Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball 18–8
- 14Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–8
- 13Kwan singled to left, Fry scored on error, Kwan safe at second on throwing error by left fielder McCormick.8–8
- 13Kwan singled to left, Fry scored on error, Kwan safe at second on throwing error by left fielder McCormick.8–8
- 13Kwan singled to left, Fry scored on error, Kwan safe at second on throwing error by left fielder McCormick.8–8
- 13Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 13Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 13Dubón doubled to left, McCormick scored, Meyers to third.8–7
- 13Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 12Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Naylor scored on throwing error by shortstop Peña, Giménez out at second.7–7
- 12Brennan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Naylor scored on throwing error by shortstop Peña, Giménez out at second.7–7
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 12Tucker singled to center, Altuve scored.7–6
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Naylor doubled to center, Ramírez scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Diaz hit sacrifice fly to left, McCormick scored, Peña to third.6–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Ramírez homered to right center (383 feet).5–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 49%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.5 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +9 Elo | HOU 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 14–1625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.