Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt DermodyPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-5, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández doubled to right, Arroyo scored.3–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 32–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Ramírez grounded into double play, third to second to second to first, Kwan scored, Ramírez out at second, Rosario out at third in rundown.2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 8Brennan homered to right (367 feet).2–9
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6Brennan singled to right, Straw scored, Brennan out stretching at second.2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 6Straw tripled to center, Giménez scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Giménez doubled to right, Bell scored and Naylor scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 6Ramírez homered to right (390 feet).2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Casas homered to right (358 feet).2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +13 | BOS: Matt Dermody (no track record yet) · CLE: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 13–1625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.