Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chris MurphyPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Amed RosarioBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Ramírez doubled to right, Rosario scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Rosario doubled to left, Kwan scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Bell grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ramírez scored, Naylor safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Devers.2–3
- 4Bell grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ramírez scored, Naylor safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Devers.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Naylor singled to right, Rosario scored, Ramírez to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Hernández scored, Valdez safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Naylor.2–1
- 4Hernández scored on error, Valdez safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Naylor.2–1
- 4Hernández scored on error, Valdez safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Naylor.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Bell singled to right, Naylor scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Devers singled to left, Verdugo scored, Yoshida to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 48%
- Fair odds
- CLE -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −5 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +14 Elo | BOS 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 12–1625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.