Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrifield doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 8Bichette homered to right center (389 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Varsho homered to center (394 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Springer homered to left center (403 feet), Kiermaier scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Dubón homered to left center (390 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Fair odds
- TOR -107
- HOU +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 15–118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.