Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Belt singled to right, Chapman scored, Kirk thrown out at home.2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Kirk hit a ground rule double, Bichette scored, Chapman to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Chapman grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Varsho scored, Guerrero Jr. out at second, Bichette to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Meyers grounded into double play, third to second to first, Tucker scored, McCormick out at second, J. Abreu to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Bregman homered to left (402 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +13 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +12 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 17–116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.