Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kirk singled to center, Varsho scored, Kiermaier to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Belt homered to right (408 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Bichette homered to center (426 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Alvarez homered to right (366 feet), Altuve scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +21 Elo | TOR 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 16–116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.