Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Corey JulksBatting1-4
- Brandon BielakPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Josh BellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman doubled to left, Bell scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Rosario grounded out to first, Straw scored, Kwan to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Bell homered to center (426 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Giménez homered to right center (388 feet), Bell scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 47%
- Fair odds
- CLE -102
- HOU +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 15–1723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.