Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith homered to right center (444 feet), Ruiz scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Candelario homered to right (360 feet), Meneses scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Meneses singled to left, García scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 4Ruiz singled to center, Candelario scored, Dickerson to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Olson homered to right (421 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -131
- WSH +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +11 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +93 Elo | ATL 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 20–147th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.