Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-5, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching7.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olivares reached on infield single to third, Witt Jr. scored, Massey to third, Olivares to second on throwing error by third baseman Newman.7–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7Melendez grounded out to second, Garcia scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Blanco doubled to left, Olivares scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5India homered to left center (409 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 36–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5McLain homered to left center (428 feet), Hopkins scored and Newman scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Fairchild homered to left (386 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4India doubled to left, McLain scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Witt Jr. singled to right, Pratto scored on error, Witt Jr. safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Hopkins, Garcia safe at third on error.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Steer homered to left center (414 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -102
- KC +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | CIN: Ben Lively: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 9–2530th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.