Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike MayersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8O'Hearn homered to right (390 feet).3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 7Henderson homered to right (462 feet), Urías scored and Frazier scored.3–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 4Hicks doubled to left, O'Hearn scored.3–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 3McCann hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.3–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 3Lester singled to center, Hicks scored and O'Hearn scored, Urías to third.3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Perez homered to left center (417 feet), Pratto scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Urías doubled to center, Hicks scored and O'Hearn scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, Henderson scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Witt Jr. doubled to right, Perez scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 64%
- Fair odds
- BAL -138
- KC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | KC: Carlos Hernandez: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +98 Elo | BAL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 29th of 309–23 | Road vs home | 19–126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–4 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.