Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Aaron HicksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Wiemer singled to left, Monasterio scored, Urías to second.3–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Turang singled to center, Perkins scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7O'Hearn homered to left center (389 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Hicks homered to right (372 feet), Hays scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Toro singled to right, Contreras scored, Anderson to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Anderson singled to left, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 45%
- Fair odds
- MIL -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −22 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +34 Elo | BAL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 16–1210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.