Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson homered to right (410 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Yastrzemski doubled to right, Davis scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Mateo reached on infield single to catcher, Hicks scored, O'Hearn to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2O'Hearn singled to center, Hays scored, Hicks to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Wade Jr. homered to right (385 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Fair odds
- SF -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +11 Elo | SF 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–9 | Road vs home | 16–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.