Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler WellsPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Giants- Blake SabolBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks tripled to right, McKenna scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Flores grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wade Jr. scored, Davis out at third in rundown.7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Sabol homered to right center (426 feet), Flores scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 37–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 6McCann homered to left (418 feet).7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Lester singled to center, Hays scored and Hicks scored, Mountcastle to third. Mountcastle scored on throwing error by center fielder Slater.6–0
- 3Lester singled to center, Hays scored, Hicks scored and Mountcastle scored on throwing error by center fielder Slater.6–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Mountcastle walked, Rutschman scored, Hicks to second, Hays to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 43–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Hays singled to right, Mateo scored, Rutschman to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Frazier hit sacrifice fly to center, McCann scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | BAL: Tyler Wells: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +2 Elo | BAL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 17–1414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–1 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.