Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adam FrazierBatting1-4
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Alex CobbPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Slater singled to center, Crawford scored, Wade Jr. to second.0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Flores singled to center, Davis scored and Yastrzemski scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Davis singled to right, Wade Jr. scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Fair odds
- SF -103
- BAL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Alex Cobb: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +8 Elo | BAL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–9 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.