Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike MayersPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Waters singled to left, Olivares scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 8Garcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Perez scored.5–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6De La Cruz homered to center (417 feet), Arraez scored.4–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5Fortes singled to center, Gurriel scored.4–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 4Arraez singled to center, Davis scored.4–6
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 4Davis doubled to right, Berti scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Berti tripled to right, Fortes scored and Wendle scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Arraez doubled to left, Davis scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Davis grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wendle scored, Berti out at second.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Melendez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Fair odds
- MIA -126
- KC +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | KC: Carlos Hernandez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +53 Elo | MIA 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 18–139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.