Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-4
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5De La Cruz singled to right, Soler scored, De La Cruz thrown out at first.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Soler doubled to left, Stallings scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Sánchez homered to left (371 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 64%
- Fair odds
- MIA -134
- OAK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −29 | −4 | OAK: Shintaro Fujinami: team allows 1.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +101 Elo | MIA 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.4 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.