San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Tatis Jr. doubled to left, Kim scored, Sánchez scored and Nola scored.10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Sánchez singled to center, Dixon scored and Cronenworth scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Cronenworth singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Dixon to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Dixon singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Sánchez homered to left (380 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Dixon hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Tatis Jr. hit a ground rule double, Kim scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Davis scored, Wendle to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +25 Elo | MIA 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 15–1212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.