San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Matt CarpenterBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kim hit sacrifice fly to center, Dixon scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Carpenter doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Odor scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Odor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Soto scored on throwing error by shortstop Berti, Odor second, Bogaerts third.6–4
- 9Odor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Soto scored on throwing error by shortstop Berti, Odor second, Bogaerts third.6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 9Bogaerts reached on infield single to pitcher, Tatis Jr. scored, Soto to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Soto singled to center, Kim scored, Tatis Jr. to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to left, Grisham scored, Kim to second.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 6De La Cruz singled to right, Berti scored, Hampson to second, Stallings to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 12–4
- 5Soto singled to right, Kim scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4De La Cruz homered to left center (426 feet), Berti scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Carpenter doubled to right, Odor scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- SD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.9 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −2 | SD: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +6 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 14–1114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.