San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Jean SeguraBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes singled to right, Segura scored.1–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 9Segura singled to left, Gurriel scored, Segura to second.1–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Sánchez homered to left (406 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -113
- SD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +22 Elo | MIA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 14–1215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.