Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones doubled to first, Castro scored and Grichuk scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Díaz doubled to center, McMahon scored and Profar scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8McMahon singled to left, Tovar scored, Profar to second.3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Profar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Doyle scored, Tovar third.2–2
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Waters homered to left center (419 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Olivares homered to left center (414 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1McMahon homered to right (385 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Fair odds
- KC -103
- COL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.8 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −21 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +24 Elo | COL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 29th of 309–20 | Road vs home | 8–2129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.