Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Garrett CooperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz struck out swinging, Fortes scored, Arraez to second on passed ball by catcher Langeliers.5–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 8Arraez reached on infield single to second, Wendle scored, Stallings to third.5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Cooper homered to left (363 feet), Arraez scored and De La Cruz scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Stallings hit sacrifice fly to right, Gurriel scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 3Laureano scored on throwing error by pitcher Alcántara.5–1
- 3Laureano scored on throwing error by pitcher Alcántara.5–1
- 3Laureano scored on throwing error by pitcher Alcántara.5–1
- 3Laureano doubled to center, Ruiz scored and Allen scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Ruiz singled to left, Langeliers scored, Allen to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Allen reached on bunt single to pitcher, Peterson scored, Langeliers to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Gurriel doubled to left, Cooper scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 58%
- Fair odds
- MIA -131
- OAK +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −10 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +54 Elo | MIA 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 17–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.