Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting5-5, 5 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fortes scored on Erceg wild pitch, Hampson to second on wild pitch by Erceg, Wendle to third on wild pitch by Erceg.1–12
- 8Fortes scored on Erceg wild pitch, Hampson to second on wild pitch by Erceg, Wendle to third on wild pitch by Erceg.1–12
- 8Davis grounded out to third, Gurriel scored, Wendle to second, Fortes to third.1–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–10
- 8Fortes singled to right, Sánchez scored, Gurriel to third.1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Langeliers singled to right, Laureano scored, Peterson to second, Bleday to third.1–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Davis scored, Arraez to third.0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Arraez hit a ground rule double, Wendle scored, Davis to third.0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Arraez doubled to center, Segura scored, Wendle scored and Fortes scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Arraez scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Arraez singled to center, Davis scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Davis doubled to right, Fortes scored and Wendle scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 60%
- Fair odds
- MIA -132
- OAK +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +74 Elo | MIA 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.4 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.