Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Nick PrattoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Daniel Lynch IVPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perez reached on infield single to second, Witt Jr. scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8Waters singled to right, Garcia scored, Olivares to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Blackmon singled to right, Trejo scored, Tovar to third.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Garcia singled to center, Pasquantino scored, Melendez to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 1Pratto homered to right (438 feet).5–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 35–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 1Doyle hit sacrifice fly to center, Montero scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Montero tripled to right, McMahon scored and Grichuk scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Grichuk singled to center, Profar scored, McMahon to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -105
- COL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +12 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Daniel Lynch IV: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +13 Elo | KC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–729th of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 8–2229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.