Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mike MoustakasBatting2-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Garcia homered to center (414 feet).0–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–1
- 5Massey singled to right, Melendez scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 48%
- Fair odds
- KC -102
- COL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −6 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +13 Elo | COL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.329th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 8–2329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–0 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.