Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Edward OlivaresBatting3-3
- Brady SingerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Frazier homered to right center (397 feet), McKenna scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Hays singled to left, Santander scored, Hays to second.1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Fermin singled to center, Olivares scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Henderson homered to center (408 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1O'Hearn singled to center, Santander scored, Hicks to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Santander doubled to right, Rutschman scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- KC +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −15 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +67 Elo | BAL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 309–22 | Road vs home | 18–126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 1–3 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.