Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4
- Zack GreinkePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz walked, Arraez scored on Kowar wild pitch, Soler to third on wild pitch by Kowar.1–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 41–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Pratto scored on Luzardo wild pitch.1–5
- 6Pratto scored on Luzardo wild pitch.1–5
- 5De La Cruz doubled to right, Arraez scored on error, Segura scored and Fortes scored, De La Cruz safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Duffy.0–5
- 5De La Cruz doubled to right, Arraez scored on error, Segura scored and Fortes scored, De La Cruz safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Duffy.0–5
- 5De La Cruz doubled to right, Arraez scored on error, Segura scored and Fortes scored, De La Cruz safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Duffy.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Arraez singled to left, Wendle scored, Fortes to second, Segura to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Sánchez homered to left (379 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -125
- KC +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −1 | KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +42 Elo | MIA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 19–135th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.