Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Joey WiemerBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKenna grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Urías scored, Hays out at second, Rutschman to third.2–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 9Hays singled to center, Mateo scored, Rutschman to second, Urías to third.1–10
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 30–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 20–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 10–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–10
- 7Wiemer homered to left (390 feet), Monasterio scored.0–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 7Caratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Anderson scored, Monasterio to third.0–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 7Monasterio doubled to right, Contreras scored, Anderson to third.0–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Anderson singled to center, Singleton scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Singleton doubled to left, Miller scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Wiemer singled to right, Anderson scored, Caratini to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Wiemer homered to right center (384 feet), Caratini scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -105
- BAL +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +8 Elo | BAL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 17–128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.