Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Frazier doubled to right, Hicks scored and Mateo scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Henderson homered to left (366 feet), Santander scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Santander doubled to right, Rutschman scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 7Urías homered to right (363 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Singleton singled to left, Contreras scored, Miller to second.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Miller singled to right, Adames scored, Contreras to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Tellez grounded out to first, Yelich scored, Adames to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -107
- BAL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL 0 Elo | BAL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–12 | Road vs home | 18–127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 0–2 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.