Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Stuart FairchildBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luke WeaverPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10India grounded into fielder's choice to third, Friedl scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball 34–4
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Perez homered to left (421 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Newman hit sacrifice fly to left, Hopkins scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6India singled to left, Friedl scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Friedl doubled to right, Maile scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Fairchild homered to left center (421 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pratto hit sacrifice fly to center, Waters scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Massey doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored and Melendez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- KC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | CIN: Luke Weaver: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 9–2329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.