Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-5
- Adam WainwrightPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stephenson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, De La Cruz scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Stephenson singled to right, De La Cruz scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Arenado tripled to right, Goldschmidt scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3De La Cruz singled to center, Casali scored, McLain to second.2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Edman grounded out to second, Carlson scored, Walker to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Walker singled to left, Contreras scored, Carlson to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1India homered to center (409 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- CIN +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −18 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 13–1726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.