Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan LylesPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left center (412 feet), Pratto scored.5–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 2Duffy doubled to center, Olivares scored.5–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Fairchild scored on Lyles wild pitch, McLain to second, Friedl to third.5–1
- 2Fairchild scored on Lyles wild pitch, McLain to second on wild pitch by Lyles, Friedl to third on wild pitch by Lyles.5–1
- 2Friedl singled to right, Newman scored, Fairchild to second.4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Fairchild singled to left, Benson scored, Newman to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Newman doubled to left, Stephenson scored, Benson to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Steer singled to left, De La Cruz scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Melendez hit sacrifice fly to right, Perez scored, Witt Jr. to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.9 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −21 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Jordan Lyles: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +45 Elo | CIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 9–2429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.