Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting3-4
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ruiz singled to center, García scored, Dickerson to second, Candelario to third.4–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 10Dickerson walked, Thomas scored, Candelario to second, García to third.3–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 43–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 10Thomas singled to left, Abrams scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 9Diaz singled to center, Tucker scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 9Ruiz homered to right (389 feet).1–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +56 Elo | HOU 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 3014–19 | Road vs home | 20–148th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.