Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meyers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Tucker out at home, J. Abreu scored on throwing error by catcher Ruiz.4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Smith tripled to center, Vargas scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 9Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Dickerson scored on throwing error by pitcher Pressly.3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 9Dickerson doubled to right, Meneses scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Abrams grounded out to first, Smith scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Diaz homered to left center (404 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4J. Abreu homered to left (417 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1J. Abreu doubled to left, Altuve scored and Tucker scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +60 Elo | HOU 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 19–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.