Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon BielakPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McLain tripled to right, Newman scored and Friedl scored.10–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 9Newman singled to right, Hopkins scored and Steer scored, Benson thrown out at third.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Altuve homered to right center (408 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Stephenson singled to left, De La Cruz scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Diaz homered to right.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Benson singled to center, McLain scored and Steer scored, Stephenson to second.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Casali sacrificed to pitcher, Benson scored.3–1
- 3Tucker hit sacrifice fly to right, Julks scored, Altuve to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1India homered to left center (403 feet), McLain scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Fair odds
- HOU -115
- CIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Bielak: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 10th of 3018–17 | Road vs home | 20–1613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.