New York Mets at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vogelbach singled to center, Alonso scored and Pham scored, McNeil to second, McNeil safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Meyers.11–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 9Pham singled to left, Lindor scored, Alonso to second.9–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 9Lindor doubled to center, Marte scored and Baty scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 7Diaz homered to left center (405 feet).6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 6McNeil singled to center, Pham scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Lindor homered to right (361 feet), Alvarez scored and Marte scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Marte singled to center, Baty scored, Alvarez to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Vogelbach homered to right (343 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- NYM +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +49 Elo | HOU 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3016–23 | Road vs home | 20–1818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.