St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets- Luis GuillormeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carlson singled to left, Edman scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Guillorme homered to right center (400 feet), Vogelbach scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Walker homered to right (375 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Goldschmidt homered to right (356 feet), Donovan scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Donovan singled to center, Edman scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Nimmo homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Fair odds
- NYM -120
- STL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +12 | STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +56 Elo | NYM 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 24th of 3014–22 | Road vs home | 17–1311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.