New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Marcano singled to right, Bae scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Suwinski homered to right (410 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4McNeil homered to right (386 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +32 Elo | PIT 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3016–22 | Road vs home | 17–1617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.