Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Rodolfo CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds singled to right, Bae scored, McCutchen to second.9–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 7Joe walked, Delay scored, Reynolds to second, McCutchen to third.9–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 49–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 39–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 7Rooker doubled to center, Brown scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Noda homered to left (361 feet).8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 4Castro doubled to center, Hayes scored and Santana scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 2Castro homered to center (430 feet).7–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 1Brown walked, Bleday scored, Noda to second, Smith to third.7–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 47–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 1Noda walked, Bride scored, Smith to second, Bleday to third.6–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 46–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 35–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Bleday singled to left, Peterson scored, Bride to second.5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Fair odds
- PIT -134
- OAK +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.1 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | OAK: Hogan Harris (no track record yet) · PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +75 Elo | PIT 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–26 | Road vs home | 16–1415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.