Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jace PetersonBatting5-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peterson homered to right center (422 feet), Bleday scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Rooker homered to left center (388 feet), Bride scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Peterson homered to right (360 feet), Langeliers scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Noda reached on infield single to pitcher, Peterson scored, Ruiz to second, Bride to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Bride singled to left, Bleday scored, Peterson to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul3–2
- 6Peterson singled to right, Díaz scored, Bleday to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Palacios grounded into fielder's choice to second, Reynolds scored, Joe out at second, McCutchen to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Brown doubled to center, Noda scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Langeliers homered to center (423 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Suwinski grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marcano scored on error, Reynolds safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Peterson, Reynolds safe at third.0–1
- 1Suwinski grounded into fielder's choice to second, Marcano scored on error, Reynolds safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Peterson, Reynolds safe at third on error.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 67%
- Fair odds
- PIT -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +11 | OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +122 Elo | PIT 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.4 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–26 | Road vs home | 16–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.