Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting0-1, 2 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to right, Bae scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Díaz doubled to left, Rooker scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Suwinski sacrificed into double play, right to third, Hedges scored, McCutchen thrown out at third.3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Reynolds walked, Mathias scored, McCutchen to second, Hedges to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 43–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6McCutchen walked, Hayes scored, Hedges to second, Mathias to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 43–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Joe doubled to right, Mathias scored, McCutchen to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- OAK +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +2 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +82 Elo | PIT 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.9 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–25 | Road vs home | 15–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.