New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting5-5, 4 RBI
- Rich HillPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guillorme hit a ground rule double, Pham scored.7–14
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–14
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–14
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–14
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–14
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–14
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–14
- 9Pham doubled to right, Álvarez scored and Baty scored.6–14
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–14
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–14
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–14
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–14
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–14
- 9Álvarez singled to left, Escobar scored, Baty to second.4–14
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–14
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–14
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–14
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–14
- 9Vientos grounded into fielder's choice to second, Canha scored, Escobar to second, Escobar safe at third on fielding error by second baseman Bae.3–14
- 9Vientos grounded into fielder's choice to second, Canha scored, Escobar to second, Escobar safe at third on fielding error by second baseman Bae.3–14
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–14
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–14
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–14
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–14
- 8Suwinski homered to center (415 feet).2–14
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–14
- 8Santana homered to right center (409 feet).2–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–13
- 6Palacios singled to right, Hayes scored.2–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +23 Elo | PIT 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.