New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-3
- Johan OviedoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canha doubled to right, Pham scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Álvarez homered to left center (410 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7Canha doubled to center, Guillorme scored and Marte scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Bae grounded into fielder's choice to second, Suwinski scored, Hayes safe at second on fielding error by second baseman McNeil, Hayes safe at third on error.1–1
- 4Bae grounded into fielder's choice to second, Suwinski scored, Hayes safe at second on fielding error by second baseman McNeil, Hayes safe at third on error.1–1
- 4Bae grounded into fielder's choice to second, Suwinski scored, Hayes safe at second on fielding error by second baseman McNeil, Hayes safe at third on error.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Nimmo singled to left, Pham scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -115
- NYM +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +28 Elo | PIT 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3015–22 | Road vs home | 17–1516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.