New York Yankees at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jake BauersBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Nimmo doubled to center, Escobar scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Marte singled to left, Escobar scored, Nimmo thrown out at second, Vientos to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Nimmo hit by pitch, Alvarez scored, Vientos to second, Escobar to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Kiner-Falefa stole home.3–1
- 7Kiner-Falefa stole home.3–1
- 7Kiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Donaldson scored on throwing error by second baseman McNeil, Rizzo out at second.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Bauers singled to right, Trevino scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pham doubled to right, Lindor scored.0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -100
- NYM +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −22 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Justin Verlander: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 15–1315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 1–0 NYM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.